Chris Torrisi looks to continue to pound this books this MLB Season with a Saturday winner!
This is a lot of runs here considering we have the Pirates, the worst offensive team in baseball going up against Gutierrez. Mitch Keller’s numbers are ugly but we’ll get into him in a second.
Gutierrez has been really in a zone lately with four quality starts in his last five appearances. In this stretch of five games he had one dud game against the Mets where he allowed three homers. The Pirates aren’t exactly you’re long ball threat type of squad. That game aside he’s been solid in 25.1 innings allowing only 6 earned runs. This Pirates offense is bad, they average only 3.8 runs per game. On the road it dips down to 3.4 runs per game, and in recent form in their last 10 games they are down to 3.3 runs per game. The Reds should keep Pittsburgh in check tonight.
Mitch Keller’s numbers for the Pirates are pretty ugly at first glance. We dig a little deeper, his BABIP is .358, making him one of the more unluckier pitchers in baseball. The tide does have to turn for the guy. It’s been pretty bad but not all bad news for him. On a rare occasion we see Keller mix in a decent start where he gives you about five innings of 2 run baseball. But with a total this high it doesn’t matter, we have an allowance for Keller to give up some runs today. If Keller can exit this game with 4 earned runs or less and give us 4 or 5 innings pitched is my threshold of where I want him to be tonight. We should be in good shape then.
I make this total a tad above 8.5. If I was an oddsmaker I’d open this at the key number of 9 and move the line based on the action of the marketplace. I think this line is overinflated and we have all the value in our pocket betting Under tonight and I’m all about value guys!
Bet:5*Pirates/Reds Under 10.5 -105
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